Goodwood Day 2 - Well Handicapped Horses

14:00 Goodwood - BEYOND 4th 9/1


Currently 12/1 in a few places and 11/1 in a few more places and 14.0 on BF (prices correct at 19:55pm Tuesday night)


This is a potential steamer, with William Twiston-Davies 7lb claim, Beyond is effectively running off a OR of 75, which looks a very handy mark on Flat Turf


16:55 Goodwood - MY QUEENIE WON 16/1

Dropped back down to a handy mark and a step up in trip, 16/1 with Hills and 14/1 elsewhere, 16.50 on BF, value at 10/1+


17:30 Goodwood - SHIFTING STAR Unplaced

Shifting Star has won over CD off 82 and runs today off 79 with William Twiston-Davies 7lb claim, back on ground that will suit and as a ex Swinburn inmate, sure to still have more improvment to come.




Regards
Simon Walton
www.proformprofessional.com

Goodwood Well Handicapped Value Bets

In the next version of Proform you can see at a glance the Highest winning OR (Official Rating) and Last winning OR alongside the LTO OR and current OR.  You can also filter these to specific race types and many other filters.


With this in mind and in conjunction with our Proform Power Ratings and value prices, here are some well handicapped horses running today which also represent value on our Power Ratings




14:00 - Goodwood - King Torus (Best Price 25/1)
Highest winning OR is 110, 
Last winning OR 108, 
Today's OR 105
Top Rated on Proform Power Ratings and value at 7/1+





14:00 - Goodwood - Kings Gambit (Best Price 28/1)
Highest winning OR is 110, 
Last winning OR 110, 
Today's OR 100
5th Rated on Proform Power Ratings and value at 16/1+




www.proformprofessional.com

Proform Value Prices

Today we look at our Proform Forecast prices against the market prices at 12 noon


The Proform Prices are from our Power Ratings, which members receive daily


We have highlighted the races and prices that are value from today's cards


We looked at only the top two rated in our power ratings to look for value

Monday July 23rd
Date	Course	#	Horse	Proform Forecast Odds	Best Odds at 12 noon	Bet Call
23/07/2012 14:00:00	Ayr	7	Sennockian Star	6/1	11/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 14:10:00	Southwell	4	Mazovian	9/2	9/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 14:40:00	Southwell	6	Sky Diamond	5/1	12/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 14:50:00	Cartmel	2	Tayarat	11/2	33/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 14:50:00	Cartmel	5	Stags Leap	6/1	9/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 15:05:00	Ayr	1	Master Of Dance	3/1	9/2	Win Value
23/07/2012 15:45:00	Southwell	1	Buxted's Choice	9/4	5/1	Win Value
23/07/2012 16:30:00	Cartmel	1	My Moment	9/2	12/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 16:45:00	Ayr	2	Blown It	100/30	9/2	Win Value
23/07/2012 16:45:00	Ayr	4	Distant Sun	11/2	8/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 17:05:00	Cartmel	1	Nobunaga	2/1	7/2	Win Value
23/07/2012 17:25:00	Southwell	5	Inpursuitoffreedom	4/1	11/2	Win Value
23/07/2012 17:35:00	Cartmel	6	Executive's Hall	15/2	20/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 17:45:00	Ayr	6	Orwellian	7/2	9/2	Win Value
23/07/2012 17:45:00	Ayr	3	Findhornbay	11/2	10/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 18:10:00	Windsor	2	Be Very Careful	13/2	33/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 18:20:00	Ballinrobe	18	Second Glance	11/2	14/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 18:30:00	Beverley	5	Red Highlites	13/8	3/1	Win Value
23/07/2012 18:40:00	Windsor	3	Reaction	3/1	9/2	Win Value
23/07/2012 18:50:00	Ballinrobe	2	Six Silver Lane	7/2	14/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 19:00:00	Beverley	1	Brockfield	13/2	10/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 19:10:00	Windsor	10	Zanotti	17/2	16/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 19:30:00	Beverley	1	Daddy Warbucks	7/2	12/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 19:40:00	Windsor	3	Librettela	7/1	16/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 19:50:00	Ballinrobe	13	Via Del Corso	9/2	13/2	E/way Value
23/07/2012 20:00:00	Beverley	4	Sir George	11/2	12/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 20:10:00	Windsor	7	Dark Ages	9/2	8/1	Dutch
23/07/2012 20:10:00	Windsor	2	Impel	11/2	7/1	Dutch
23/07/2012 20:20:00	Ballinrobe	8	Breeze With Ease	8/1	16/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 20:30:00	Beverley	4	Vexillum	11/2	14/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 20:40:00	Windsor	2	Ken's Girl	4/1	11/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 20:50:00	Ballinrobe	1	Invincible Soul	7/2	8/1	E/way Value
23/07/2012 21:00:00	Beverley	2	Mercers Row	5/1	9/1	Dutch
23/07/2012 21:00:00	Beverley	5	Select Committee	6/1	7/1	Dutch

Guest Post - Course Connoisseurs - by Ben Aitken (NTF)

On the Blog today we have a guest post from Ben Aitken; author of ‘Narrowing the Field - Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing’, owner and creator of racing web-site www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk and also a dedicated Proform user.

Ben has been a Proform user for some time now and today his detailed research has identified one of those special horses that shine at a specific track – the course specialist.

Over to Ben:

Course Connoisseurs

Course Connoisseurs, Track Specialists, Horses for Courses…… whatever you may call them these types of animals are well worth sourcing, analysing and getting to know and adding them to your punting weaponry.

I personally have an exhaustive and detailed list compromising of a vast array of horses and their individual preferences – horse profiling if you will. Amongst this list there are numerous ‘Course Connoisseurs’, 1 of which I want to share with you here today.

The horse in question is the Sean Regan trained MERIDIEM.

Why does my antenna start twitching when MERIDIEM runs at Towcester? Simple, he is a Towcester connoisseur!

Take a look at the 8yo’s form figures over the testing undulations of Towcester racetrack –

Towcester form figures – 2-1-2-2-1-1

A 50% WIN strike-rate and a 100% win & place strike-rate! Figures that tell me this is track he simply adores.

A quick squint at the RPR figures he has achieved also shows that he is yet to get within 13lbs of his Towcester form at any other track.

Now let’s take a look at his form figures away from his beloved Towcester –

Form figures away from Towcester - 0-0-9-4-7-3-0-5-9

A miserable set of figures I’m sure you will agree!

Clearly you need to take other factors into account when analysing the chances of any horse in a specific race but if you know the horse has a particular liking for a specific track, like MERIDIEM at Towcester, then you are already in the process of building up a profile on the horse and putting yourself in a strong position to stay ahead of the crowd.

I can also store specific horse notes on Proform and have the software alert me as to when MERIDIEM is running at his favourite track; no need for any manual checking and potentially missing him run.

In summary then we know that MERIDIEM…

• Has strong Towcester form (2-1-2-2-1-1)
• Has weak form elsewhere (0-0-9-4-7-3-0-5-9)

..and by looking at his CV a bit closer we also know that…

• His 3 wins at the track and 3 placed efforts have come over 2m (16f)
• He acts best on Good or better ground (record on ground with cut in it reads 9-4-7-3-9 compared to ground that is good or better 0-0-2-1-2-2-1-5-1)

He currently sits on a career high mark of 100 and despite running poorly from marks above 93 (93 being his previous highest winning mark) on the 2 occasions he has tried in the past it is important to note that those runs were NOT at his beloved Towcester. With only 15 runs under his belt (11 hurdle starts) it is not inconceivable that he could defy a mark above 93 when running at Towcester on Good or better ground.

On my website – www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk – I’m currently giving away a FREE ‘Course Connoisseurs’ guide when you sign up to my FREE NTF service. Simply pop your details in the sign-up box on this page - http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk – and you will be sent a link that allows you to download the FREE NTF Course Connoisseurs guide.

There are also numerous other FREE NTF guides you can download at the same time including my ‘Introduction to the Dosage Method’ guide.

The ‘Course Connoisseurs’ is a great example of one of the many angles you can create and source with the powerful Proform database.

Happy Punting

Ben Aitken (NTF)

Owner and creator of www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk and author of ‘Narrowing The Field – Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing’.